Home Depot Sees 5 to 6 Percent Growth Ahead

Short-term business conditions remain difficult but the big retail chain sees housing momentum returning.

“Our Market Recovery Case reflects our performance expectations once we see momentum in housing activity and increased spend on larger projects driven by pent-up demand,” Richard McPhail, executive vice president and chief financial officer for Home Depot, told an investor and analyst conference recently while cautioning that immediate business conditions will remain soft.

“We believe that the pressures in housing will correct and provide the home improvement market with support for growth faster than the general economy, and we expect to continue to grow faster than our market,” McPhail said.

Given those conditions, the retailer said it would expect a total sales growth of about 5 percent to 6 percent, and comp-store sales growth of about 4 percent to 5 percent. Profits would grow even faster, he said.

McPhail also raised the possibility of a more aggressive scenario. “In our Accelerated Recovery Case, we could see sales and earnings per share grow faster in the event of a sharper housing recovery.”

Current 2026 forecasts are more modest with preliminary CY26 sales growth projections of 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent and with comparable store sales growth of flat to 2 percent.

Home Depot pointed to three key strategic areas it sees that will drive growth going forward: focusing on core and culture, delivering a frictionless interconnected experience and winning over the pro builder.

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