Home Depot 2026 Forecast: No Rebound in Sight

In a presentation to investors, the big home improvement chain forecast only slight gains for the new year.

The giant retailer said it expects same-store sales to be in the flat to plus-two-percent range in 2026, which is below what many analysts had been forecasting previously. Total sales growth projections were also off from estimates.

Looking at high housing prices and mortgage rates that are only trickling down from the year-earlier levels, Home Depot chief financial officer Richard McPhail told investors, “Looking forward to 2026, we anticipate these pressures will persist, as we have not yet seen a catalyst for an inflection in housing activity.”

According to a Bloomberg report on the session, the company said “pent-up demand for projects has been building since 2023 and will eventually fuel growth.” Depot executives outlined what they called a “market recovery” case that spells out higher growth when the company sees housing activity and spending pick up. In such a scenario, comparable sales are expected to rise in a range of 4 percent to 5 percent according to the report.

Company executives, outlining plans to open 15 to 20 new stores per year for the foreseeable future, said they were optimistic about the longer term due to the shortage of homes in the country and the aging of the existing fleet.

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