Harvard Confirms Remodeling Forecasts

Continuing what we’ve seen from other studies, this is the latest outlook from Harvard’s prestigious housing studies program.

Oftentimes, research studies present contradictory findings on any given subject. Currently, that’s not the case with the latest forecasts on the remodeling sector. The new Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) from Harvard’s Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies – considered one of the most respected sources in the field – reports that spending for improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes is expected to slow next year.

There will be a small bump – 1.2 percent by the second quarter of 2026, the LIRA study forecasts – but “Weakness in the current housing market is expected to have a dampening effect on home improvement spending,” according to Rachel Bogardus Drew, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “Slowing construction starts and remodeling permitting activity, which are key factors in predicting future remodeling expenditures, are also putting downward pressure on home improvement growth.”

Much still depends on any return of activity in the housing market, LIRA reported. “It will be important to keep an eye on whether the housing market shows any sign of rebound in the second half of the year, to assess if this slowdown is the beginning of a more significant downturn,” says Chris Herbert, managing director of the Center. “However, federal cuts to incentives for home energy improvements could spur an increase in remodeling activity in the short term, as homeowners seek to take advantage of programs before they disappear.”

The next LIRA report is due on October 16, later this year.

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